Space weather

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Update
ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Sep 27, 2023 12:46 PM UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 27 1230 UTC
Station: GOES16


Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 27, 2023 08:35 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4464
Valid From: 2023 Sep 24 2025 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 27 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 27, 2023 02:55 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4463
Valid From: 2023 Sep 24 2025 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 27 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 26, 2023 08:54 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4462
Valid From: 2023 Sep 24 2025 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 27 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Sep 26, 2023 02:49 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 497
Valid From: 2023 Sep 26 1100 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 26 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Sep 26, 2023 02:47 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 496
Valid From: 2023 Sep 26 1100 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 23 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 26, 2023 01:06 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 26 1305 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 26, 2023 11:01 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4461
Valid From: 2023 Sep 24 2025 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 26 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 26, 2023 11:01 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1815
Valid From: 2023 Sep 26 0545 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 26 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Sep 26, 2023 10:59 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 26 1100 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 26 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 26, 2023 10:50 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 26 1031 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 26, 2023 08:19 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 26 0809 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 26, 2023 05:45 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 26 0545 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 26 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 26, 2023 02:55 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4460
Valid From: 2023 Sep 24 2025 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 26 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: Sep 25, 2023 04:54 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 26: G1 (Minor) Sep 27: None (Below G1) Sep 28: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 25, 2023 03:36 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4459
Valid From: 2023 Sep 24 2025 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 26 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 25, 2023 05:55 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 25 0550 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 25, 2023 05:07 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4458
Valid From: 2023 Sep 24 2025 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 25 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 25, 2023 05:02 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1813
Valid From: 2023 Sep 24 2035 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 25 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 25, 2023 02:01 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 25 0156 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Sep 24, 2023 11:23 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 24 2320 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 24, 2023 10:05 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 24 2205 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Issued: Sep 24, 2023 09:23 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2023 Sep 24 2043 UTC
Deviation: 129 nT
Station: MEA

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Sep 24, 2023 08:53 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 24 2052 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 24, 2023 08:49 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 24 2048 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Sep 24, 2023 08:49 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 24 2049 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 25 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 24, 2023 08:48 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 24 2046 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 24, 2023 08:34 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 24 2035 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 25 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 24, 2023 08:13 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 24 2025 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 25 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Issued: Sep 24, 2023 08:11 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 24 2025 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 24 2105 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2023 Sep 24 1953 UTC

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Sep 24, 2023 04:28 PM UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 24 1507 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 755 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Sep 23, 2023 12:23 PM UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3368
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 19 1705 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2554 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Sep 22, 2023 08:02 PM UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 22 1928 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 483 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Sep 22, 2023 12:17 PM UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3367
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 19 1705 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1416 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: Sep 21, 2023 08:11 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 22: None (Below G1) Sep 23: G1 (Minor) Sep 24: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: 20 Sep CME shock and glancing influences coupled with negative polarity CH HSS influences

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Sep 21, 2023 03:14 PM UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3366
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 19 1705 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2923 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: Sep 21, 2023 01:08 PM UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 21 1242 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 Sep 21 1254 UTC
End Time: 2023 Sep 21 1302 UTC
X-ray Class: M8.7
Location: N09E24
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: Sep 21, 2023 12:55 PM UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 21 1251 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: Sep 21, 2023 01:41 AM UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 20 2025 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 20, 2023 11:12 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 20 2312 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 20, 2023 10:54 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 20 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 21 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Sep 20, 2023 03:00 PM UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 20 1425 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1054 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: Sep 20, 2023 02:53 PM UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 20 1411 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 Sep 20 1419 UTC
End Time: 2023 Sep 20 1425 UTC
X-ray Class: M8.2
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N09E35
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: Sep 20, 2023 02:20 PM UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 20 1417 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Sep 20, 2023 01:02 PM UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3365
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 19 1705 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2068 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 20, 2023 08:04 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4455
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 0130 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 20 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 11:11 PM UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 19 2237 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 11:08 PM UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 19 2236 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 680 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 05:22 PM UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 19 1705 UTC
Station: GOES-16


Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 04:50 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 19 1644 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 02:53 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4454
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 0130 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 20 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 02:52 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1811
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 1340 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 19 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 01:44 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 19 1330 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 05:59 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 19 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 04:33 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 493
Valid From: 2023 Sep 19 0105 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 19 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 04:33 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1810
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 1340 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 19 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 04:33 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4453
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 0130 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 19 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 04:05 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 19 0404 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 19 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 03:36 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 19 0329 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 03:21 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 19 0321 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 02:16 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 19 0216 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 01:07 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1809
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 1340 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 19 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 01:07 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 19 0105 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 19 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 01:07 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4452
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 0130 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 19 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 19, 2023 12:59 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 19 0058 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 18, 2023 11:44 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1808
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 1340 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 19 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 18, 2023 08:45 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 18 2044 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 18, 2023 05:59 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 18 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Issued: Sep 18, 2023 01:50 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2023 Sep 18 1330 UTC
Deviation: 75 nT
Station: WNG

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 18, 2023 01:41 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4451
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 0130 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 19 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 18, 2023 01:40 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 1340 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 18 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Issued: Sep 18, 2023 01:07 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 1325 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 18 1355 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2023 Sep 18 1258 UTC

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 18, 2023 03:00 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 18 0259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 18, 2023 02:55 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 0254 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 18 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 18, 2023 02:11 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 18 0210 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 18, 2023 01:34 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 18 0130 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 18 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Sep 17, 2023 04:43 PM UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 17 1612 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 344 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Issued: Sep 17, 2023 12:24 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 18: None (Below G1) Sep 19: G2 (Moderate) Sep 20: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 17, 2023 06:03 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 17 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Issued: Sep 17, 2023 02:46 AM UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2023 Sep 17 0232 UTC
Deviation: 24 nT
Station: CNB

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 17, 2023 02:37 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 17 0235 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 17 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Issued: Sep 17, 2023 02:09 AM UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 17 0230 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 17 0315 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2023 Sep 17 0155 UTC

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: Sep 15, 2023 09:06 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 16: None (Below G1) Sep 17: G1 (Minor) Sep 18: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 14, 2023 07:43 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 14 1943 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 14, 2023 07:00 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 14 1900 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 15 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 14, 2023 02:26 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 14 0225 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 14 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 14, 2023 02:18 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 14 0210 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 14, 2023 01:01 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 14 0101 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 14 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 13, 2023 02:07 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 13 0206 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 13, 2023 02:01 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4446
Valid From: 2023 Sep 12 1140 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 13 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 13, 2023 02:01 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 13 0200 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 13 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: Sep 12, 2023 09:02 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 13: G1 (Minor) Sep 14: None (Below G1) Sep 15: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Sep 12, 2023 06:05 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 12 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 12, 2023 04:48 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 12 1628 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 12, 2023 02:37 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1803
Valid From: 2023 Sep 12 1252 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 12 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 12, 2023 02:36 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4445
Valid From: 2023 Sep 12 1140 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 13 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Sep 12, 2023 02:34 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 12 1433 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 12 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 12, 2023 02:19 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 12 1414 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 12, 2023 12:52 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 12 1252 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 12 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 12, 2023 12:51 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 12 1249 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Issued: Sep 12, 2023 12:37 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2023 Sep 12 1222 UTC
Deviation: 40 nT
Station: Fredericksburg

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 12, 2023 11:41 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 12 1140 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 12 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Issued: Sep 12, 2023 11:39 AM UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 12 1215 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 12 1245 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2023 Sep 12 1130 UTC

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Sep 11, 2023 02:13 AM UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 11 0120 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 547 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Sep 7, 2023 07:28 PM UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 07 1903 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1238 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 6, 2023 02:42 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 06 1442 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 06 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Sep 5, 2023 08:39 PM UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 05 2021 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1314 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 5, 2023 08:20 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 05 2018 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 06 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: Sep 5, 2023 07:02 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 06: G1 (Minor) Sep 07: None (Below G1) Sep 08: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 5, 2023 05:14 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 05 1714 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 5, 2023 04:09 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 05 1608 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 06 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: Sep 5, 2023 03:43 PM UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 05 1525 UTC
Station: GOES16


Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Issued: Sep 5, 2023 03:35 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2023 Sep 05 1529 UTC
Deviation: 30 nT
Station: BOU

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Issued: Sep 5, 2023 03:09 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 05 1507 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 05 1550 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2023 Sep 05 1441 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 3, 2023 11:36 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4441
Valid From: 2023 Sep 02 0328 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 04 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 3, 2023 11:12 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4440
Valid From: 2023 Sep 02 0328 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 03 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: Sep 3, 2023 09:16 AM UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 03 0809 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 Sep 03 0836 UTC
End Time: 2023 Sep 03 0846 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.0
Location: N10W90
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 3, 2023 09:02 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 03 0859 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: Sep 3, 2023 08:42 AM UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 03 0842 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: Sep 3, 2023 03:02 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 03 0259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: Sep 3, 2023 01:51 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 03 0150 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 03 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 3, 2023 01:50 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 03 0149 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 2, 2023 09:56 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 02 2155 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 2, 2023 05:55 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4439
Valid From: 2023 Sep 02 0328 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 03 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 2, 2023 05:55 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1800
Valid From: 2023 Sep 02 0705 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Sep 03 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 2, 2023 03:02 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 02 1459 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 2, 2023 12:16 PM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 02 1159 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: Sep 2, 2023 08:13 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 02 0810 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: Sep 2, 2023 07:37 AM UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 02 0704 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 Sep 02 0711 UTC
End Time: 2023 Sep 02 0719 UTC
Duration: 15 minutes
Peak Flux: 229 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 136 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: Sep 2, 2023 07:06 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 02 0705 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 02 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: Sep 2, 2023 04:04 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2023 Sep 02 0400 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: Sep 2, 2023 03:29 AM UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 02 0328 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 02 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Issued: Sep 2, 2023 03:26 AM UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 01 0430 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 Sep 01 0610 UTC
End Time: 2023 Sep 01 2010 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 25 pfu
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Issued: Sep 1, 2023 04:46 AM UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 01 0430 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Issued: Sep 1, 2023 04:19 AM UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2023 Sep 01 0425 UTC
Valid To: 2023 Sep 01 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: Sep 1, 2023 03:45 AM UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 01 0303 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: Sep 1, 2023 03:44 AM UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 01 0308 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 743 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: Sep 1, 2023 03:36 AM UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2023 Sep 01 0307 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 Sep 01 0311 UTC
End Time: 2023 Sep 01 0319 UTC
Duration: 12 minutes
Peak Flux: 190 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 140 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: Aug 31, 2023 09:16 PM UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 01: None (Below G1) Sep 02: None (Below G1) Sep 03: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Table

Date Radio flux 10.7 cm SESC Sunspot number Sunspot area 10E-6 New regions GOES15 X-ray Bkgd flux Flares
X-ray Optical
C M X S 1 2 3
Aug 28, 2023 142 68 650 1 * 7 0 0 2 0 0 0
Aug 29, 2023 142 82 640 0 * 7 0 0 4 0 0 0
Aug 30, 2023 139 94 700 1 * 4 0 0 3 1 0 0
Aug 31, 2023 140 77 650 0 * 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep 01, 2023 136 83 580 0 * 3 1 0 2 0 0 0
Sep 02, 2023 131 77 370 1 * 3 1 0 3 0 0 0
Sep 03, 2023 131 79 230 2 * 8 2 0 2 0 0 0
Sep 04, 2023 136 100 140 2 * 10 0 0 9 0 0 0
Sep 05, 2023 143 121 325 1 * 7 3 0 8 4 0 0
Sep 06, 2023 147 131 625 1 * 12 0 0 11 1 0 0
Sep 07, 2023 161 135 585 1 * 8 1 0 15 1 0 0
Sep 08, 2023 161 123 620 0 * 8 0 0 12 0 0 0
Sep 09, 2023 161 119 620 1 * 11 0 0 13 2 0 0
Sep 10, 2023 164 167 670 4 * 8 0 0 20 0 0 0
Sep 11, 2023 176 173 685 1 * 8 3 0 29 3 0 0
Sep 12, 2023 154 141 605 1 * 11 3 0 13 1 1 0
Sep 13, 2023 143 109 550 0 * 5 0 0 2 0 0 0
Sep 14, 2023 145 110 570 0 * 4 3 0 4 0 0 0
Sep 15, 2023 139 96 490 1 * 9 1 0 11 1 0 0
Sep 16, 2023 140 88 330 1 * 6 2 0 7 2 0 0
Sep 17, 2023 145 94 360 1 * 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Sep 18, 2023 155 139 800 4 * 15 0 0 7 0 0 0
Sep 19, 2023 166 143 970 1 * 11 3 0 3 0 0 0
Sep 20, 2023 156 159 1190 1 * 9 1 0 5 0 0 0
Sep 21, 2023 168 159 910 2 * 6 1 0 1 0 0 0
Sep 22, 2023 176 184 930 2 * 7 4 0 23 1 0 0
Sep 23, 2023 173 198 970 0 * 17 1 0 6 1 0 0
Sep 24, 2023 174 172 950 0 * 17 2 0 11 1 0 0
Sep 25, 2023 170 164 940 2 * 8 0 0 10 0 0 0
Sep 26, 2023 165 179 925 1 * 6 0 0 7 0 0 0
Average/Total 153 125 653 33 239 32 0 244 19 1 0

Summary graph

Flares

Solar wind

Solar Wind

The solar wind is a stream of plasma released from the upper atmosphere of the Sun. It consists of mostly electrons, protons and alpha particles with energies usually between 1.5 and 10 keV. The stream of particles varies in density, temperature, and speed over time and over solar longitude. These particles can escape the Sun's gravity because of their high energy, from the high temperature of the corona and magnetic, electrical and electromagnetic phenomena in it.

The solar wind is divided into two components, respectively termed the slow solar wind and the fast solar wind. The slow solar wind has a velocity of about 400 km/s, a temperature of 1.4–1.6×10e6 K and a composition that is a close match to the corona. By contrast, the fast solar wind has a typical velocity of 750 km/s, a temperature of 8×10e5 K and it nearly matches the composition of the Sun's photosphere. The slow solar wind is twice as dense and more variable in intensity than the fast solar wind. The slow wind also has a more complex structure, with turbulent regions and large-scale structures.

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records. Reported in “solar flux units”, (s.f.u.), the F10.7 can vary from below 50 s.f.u., to above 300 s.f.u., over the course of a solar cycle.

Flares

Flares

A solar flare is a sudden flash of brightness observed over the Sun's surface or the solar limb, which is interpreted as a large energy release of up to 6 × 10e25 joules of energy. They are often, but not always, followed by a colossal coronal mass ejection. The flare ejects clouds of electrons, ions, and atoms through the corona of the sun into space. These clouds typically reach Earth a day or two after the event.

Solar flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona), when the plasma medium is heated to tens of millions of kelvin, while the electrons, protons, and heavier ions are accelerated to near the speed of light. They produce radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum at all wavelengths, from radio waves to gamma rays, although most of the energy is spread over frequencies outside the visual range and for this reason the majority of the flares are not visible to the naked eye and must be observed with special instruments. Flares occur in active regions around sunspots, where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior. Flares are powered by the sudden (timescales of minutes to tens of minutes) release of magnetic energy stored in the corona. The same energy releases may produce coronal mass ejections (CME), although the relation between CMEs and flares is still not well established.

The frequency of occurrence of solar flares varies, from several per day when the Sun is particularly "active" to less than one every week when the Sun is "quiet", following the 11-year cycle (the solar cycle). Large flares are less frequent than smaller ones.

Classification

Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square metre, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometre X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft.

Classification Peak Flux Range at 100-800 picometer
W/m2
A < 10e-7
B 10e-7 to 10e-6
C 10e-6 to 10e-5
M 10e-5 to 10e-4
X 10e-4 to 10e-3
Z > 10e-3

An earlier flare classification is based on Hα spectral observations. The scheme uses both the intensity and emitting surface. The classification in intensity is qualitative, referring to the flares as: (f)aint, (n)ormal or (b)rilliant. The emitting surface is measured in terms of millionths of the hemisphere and is described below. (The total hemisphere area AH = 6.2 × 1012 km2.)

Classification Corrected area
(millionths of hemisphere)
S < 100
1 100 - 250
2 250 - 600
3 600 - 1200
4 > 1200

Sunspot number

Sunspots

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. They correspond to concentrations of magnetic field that inhibit convection and result in reduced surface temperature compared to the surrounding photosphere. Sunspots usually appear in pairs, with pair members of opposite magnetic polarity. The number of sunspots varies according to the approximately 11-year solar cycle.

Sunspot populations quickly rise and more slowly fall on an irregular cycle of 11 years, although significant variations in the number of sunspots attending the 11-year period are known over longer spans of time. For example, from 1900 to the 1960s, the solar maxima trend of sunspot count has been upward; from the 1960s to the present, it has diminished somewhat. Over the last decades the Sun has had a markedly high average level of sunspot activity; it was last similarly active over 8,000 years ago.

The number of sunspots correlates with the intensity of solar radiation over the period since 1979, when satellite measurements of absolute radiative flux became available. Since sunspots are darker than the surrounding photosphere it might be expected that more sunspots would lead to less solar radiation and a decreased solar constant. However, the surrounding margins of sunspots are brighter than the average, and so are hotter; overall, more sunspots increase the Sun's solar constant or brightness. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, on the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W/m2 compared to 1366 W/m2 for the average solar constant).

K-indices



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Data


Estimated Planetary

Estimated Planetary

Date A K-indices (UTC)
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h
Aug 29, 2023 5 0. 67 0. 67 0.
Aug 30, 2023 6 2. 33 1. 33 1.
Aug 31, 2023 6 1. 00 1. 67 2.
Sep 01, 2023 12 3. 00 2. 67 2.
Sep 02, 2023 38 3. 33 4. 33 5.
Sep 03, 2023 25 5. 67 3. 33 4.
Sep 04, 2023 8 2. 67 2. 67 2.
Sep 05, 2023 11 1. 33 1. 33 1.
Sep 06, 2023 8 2. 00 1. 00 2.
Sep 07, 2023 6 2. 67 1. 33 1.
Sep 08, 2023 6 3. 00 1. 33 0.
Sep 09, 2023 8 3. 00 1. 67 1.
Sep 10, 2023 4 2. 00 0. 67 0.
Sep 11, 2023 7 2. 33 1. 67 1.
Sep 12, 2023 25 1. 67 1. 00 1.
Sep 13, 2023 17 4. 67 3. 67 2.
Sep 14, 2023 18 4. 33 2. 67 3.
Sep 15, 2023 7 2. 67 2. 00 1.
Sep 16, 2023 7 2. 00 0. 67 1.
Sep 17, 2023 16 3. 33 3. 67 3.
Sep 18, 2023 30 4. 67 4. 00 2.
Sep 19, 2023 49 5. 67 6. 67 4.
Sep 20, 2023 16 3. 67 3. 33 3.
Sep 21, 2023 10 2. 67 2. 67 2.
Sep 22, 2023 8 2. 00 1. 33 2.
Sep 23, 2023 10 3. 00 2. 67 2.
Sep 24, 2023 21 2. 00 2. 00 2.
Sep 25, 2023 23 5. 33 5. 00 3.
Sep 26, 2023 32 3. 33 4. 33 4.
Sep 27, 2023 19 4. 00 3. 00 3.

Middle Latitude

Date A K-indices
Aug 29, 2023 7 2 1 1 2 3 1 2 2
Aug 30, 2023 9 2 2 1 3 3 1 3 1
Aug 31, 2023 8 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 2
Sep 01, 2023 15 2 3 3 4 4 2 2 3
Sep 02, 2023 25 3 4 3 4 5 3 4 4
Sep 03, 2023 28 5 3 5 4 4 4 3 3
Sep 04, 2023 14 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 2
Sep 05, 2023 14 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3
Sep 06, 2023 10 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 1
Sep 07, 2023 11 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 2
Sep 08, 2023 8 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1
Sep 09, 2023 12 3 3 2 2 3 4 1 1
Sep 10, 2023 6 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2
Sep 11, 2023 8 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2
Sep 12, 2023 17 2 1 1 3 5 4 2 4
Sep 13, 2023 17 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 3
Sep 14, 2023 13 4 2 3 2 2 2 3 3
Sep 15, 2023 7 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 3
Sep 16, 2023 5 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2
Sep 17, 2023 14 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3
Sep 18, 2023 21 4 3 2 2 4 4 4 4
Sep 19, 2023 38 5 6 4 5 5 4 3 2
Sep 20, 2023 15 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 3
Sep 21, 2023 10 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 3
Sep 22, 2023 7 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 2
Sep 23, 2023 9 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2
Sep 24, 2023 17 2 2 2 2 2 1 5 5
Sep 25, 2023 15 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2
Sep 26, 2023 26 3 4 5 4 5 3 3 3
Sep 27, 2023 3 3 3 3 3

High Latitude

Date A K-indices
Aug 29, 2023 6 0 0 0 4 3 1 1 1
Aug 30, 2023 7 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 1
Aug 31, 2023 10 1 2 3 5 0 1 1 1
Sep 01, 2023 27 2 3 4 6 4 5 2 2
Sep 02, 2023 59 3 3 7 6 6 6 3 5
Sep 03, 2023 28 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 2
Sep 04, 2023 5 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1
Sep 05, 2023 9 0 2 0 2 2 4 3 2
Sep 06, 2023 11 1 0 3 2 5 2 1 1
Sep 07, 2023 3 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Sep 08, 2023 3 1 2 0 1 1 1 0 1
Sep 09, 2023 10 1 2 2 4 4 2 0 0
Sep 10, 2023 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
Sep 11, 2023 5 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1
Sep 12, 2023 38 1 1 0 3 6 7 5 3
Sep 13, 2023 28 3 3 3 6 5 5 1 1
Sep 14, 2023 16 3 2 3 3 1 2 5 3
Sep 15, 2023 7 2 2 0 0 2 3 1 3
Sep 16, 2023 3 1 0 1 0 0 2 2 2
Sep 17, 2023 17 3 3 4 4 4 2 2 2
Sep 18, 2023 49 3 4 5 4 4 7 6 4
Sep 19, 2023 61 4 6 5 6 6 7 3 3
Sep 20, 2023 28 2 3 5 6 4 3 3 3
Sep 21, 2023 17 2 2 2 2 5 5 1 2
Sep 22, 2023 23 2 2 4 6 4 4 1 2
Sep 23, 2023 24 2 3 3 6 5 3 2 1
Sep 24, 2023 16 1 2 3 4 3 1 4 4
Sep 25, 2023 24 4 5 3 5 4 3 2 2
Sep 26, 2023 68 1 3 7 7 7 6 3 2
Sep 27, 2023 4 2 4 4 4

About

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The label K comes from the German word Kennziffer meaning “characteristic digit”. The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index is derived at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center using data from the following ground-based magnetometers:

  • Sitka, Alaska
  • Meanook, Canada
  • Ottawa, Canada
  • Fredericksburg, Virginia
  • Hartland, UK
  • Wingst, Germany
  • Niemegk, Germany
  • Canberra, Australia

These data are made available thanks to the cooperative efforts between SWPC and data providers around the world, which currently includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), the British Geological Survey, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), and Geoscience Australia. Important magnetometer observations are also contributed by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and the Korean Space Weather Center K-index Watches are issued when the highest predicted NOAA estimated Kp-indices for a day are K = 5, 6, 7, or >= 8 and is reported in terms of the NOAA G scale. K-index Warnings are issued when NOAA estimated Kp-indices of 4, 5, 6, and 7 or greater are expected. K-index Alerts are issued when the NOAA estimated Kp-indices reach 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.


More info
Data source: NOAA, Wikipedia

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